The midterm elections to the Congress are considered by foreign experts as a vote of confidence in the President. About three-quarters of voters in both parties say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress in upcoming elections1.

Currently, the level of support for D.Trump among Republicans is quite high (it ranges from 70-85%). At the same time among Democrats it is radically low (less than 10%). The upcoming elections are an important political milestone for the main leading U.S. parties and the Head of the White House. Elections results will demonstrate the level of public support for Trumps policy.

The level of approval Of D.Trump’s policy by representatives of the Republican (red markers) and Democratic parties (blue markers)2

The Republicans held a majority in both houses of Congress: 236 seats in the House of Representatives and 51 seats in the Senate. According to the survey of The Cook Political Report, alignment of political forces is constantly changing ahead of the elections. The Republican Party was expected to gain at least 210 seats in the House of Representative in mid-June this year, while the Democratic party – 201. The fate of the 24 seats was unclear. In late July, the Democrats gained 192 seats against 207. In mid-August, the both parties have an equal chance of 36 seats in the Lower House3.

There is also uncertainty about the distribution of Senate seats. According to The Cook Political Report, by the end of July, Republicans will have at least 49 seats in the midterm elections, and Democrats will have at least 44. Thus, the majority in the Upper House will receive the party, which will be able to win the seven remaining seats4.

Recent opinion polls show that Democrats are much more politically active than Republicans. The national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted July 30-August 12 among 4,581 adults, including 4,000 registered voters, finds that half of voters-Democrats (50%) have attended a political rally, protest or campaign event related to the election campaign, compared with 40% of the Republican Party. In particular, among registered voters supporting Democratic candidates, 22% took part in a political event, compared to 8% voters supporting Republicans5.

The Republicans hope to maintain a majority in both houses. According to experts, winning the majority of seats in the House of Representatives in the upcoming elections can help the American President to pursue his policy aimed at border security, customs tariffs, Russian and Chinese directions. The victory of the Republican party in the Senate elections (currently, 26 of the 35 senators who will be re-elected are Democrats), according to political scientists, could open for the American President the possibility of reforming the judicial system.

 

1 As Midterms Near, Democrats Are More Politically Active Than Republicans // Pew Research Center. 2018. AUGUST 16. URL: http://www.peoplepress.org/2018/08/16/asmidtermsneardemocratsaremorepoliticallyactivethanrepublicans/ (Accessed 21.08.2018).

2 Trump’s approval ratings so far are unusually stable – and deeply partisan // Pew Research Center. 2018. AUGUST 1. URL: http://www.pewresearch.org/facttank/2018/08/01/trumpsapprovalratingssofarareunusuallystableanddeeplypartisan/ (Accessed 21.08.2018).

3 What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results // The Cook Political Report. 2018. August 2. URL: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/houseoverview/whataugustratingscantellusaboutnovemberresults (Accessed 21.08.2018).

4 What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results // The Cook Political Report. 2018. August 2. URL: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/houseoverview/whataugustratingscantellusaboutnovemberresults (Accessed 21.08.2018).

5 As Midterms Near, Democrats Are More Politically Active Than Republicans // Pew Research Center. 2018. AUGUST 16. URL: http://www.peoplepress.org/2018/08/16/asmidtermsneardemocratsaremorepoliticallyactivethanrepublicans/ (Accessed 21.08.2018).