Turkey may respond to possible EU sanctions with a migrant flow, RISS expert Georgy Sosnov points out. At the summit held in Corsica on September 11, French President E.Macron said that a new package of sanctions against Turkey would be discussed at the upcoming summit on September 24.
A lot of summit participants in Corsica were in favor of resolving the contradictions through peace talks. The thousands of migrants are camped at the Turkish border waiting to see what the EU and Turkey agree. Ankara can partially control the migration flow through Libya with the help of Tripoli's Government of National Accord. Thus, Erdogan shouldn't expect serious economic EU sanctions, G.Sosnov underscores.
He recalled that the Turkey-France confrontation was due to Ankara's desire to conduct gas exploration of the Eastern Mediterranean shelf. Turkey signed an agreement with Libya on receiving the Mediterranean waters that Greece considers part of its exclusive economic zone. Paris also has plans for offshore gas drilling in Cyprus. In addition, Turkey’s increasing activity in Libya weakens France's position in Africa. Israel also has a strong interest in becoming an energy exporter and wants to lay a gas pipeline across the Mediterranean sea to Italy. If Tel Aviv and Ankara sign a deal on building gas pipeline, then Israel will indirectly recognize Turkey's rights to this exclusive economic zone.
"Turkey claims to be a regional leader in the Mediterranean, as well as a leader of the Islamic world. Europe has nothing to counter the growing role of Ankara," RISS expert concluded.