Situation analysis “Syria crisis: challenges and development prospects”

In the wake of the events that shook the world – from US missile strike on Shayrat Airbase to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first Moscow visit – RISS experts offered their scenario analysis of the cause-and-effect relations and factors capable of determining the trends of Syria conflict development, both in the short and in the long run.

The experts point out deterioration of the overall situation, with conflicts actively moving to the red line, beyond which events can spiral out of control, causing catastrophic consequences not just for the Middle Eastern region but for the entire world. According to RISS experts, the central point for many conflicting and intertwined interests that is the operations theater in Syria cannot be dealt with by any external military solution or by replacing disgraced political figures. Only dialog and joint stand against terrorist groups such as ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra can set foundation for stopping the bloodshed and slowly building peaceful life. At the same time, experts say that despite numerous alternative solutions, negative scenarios remain likely given the current confrontation background.

Commenting on the discussion, RISS Director M. Fradkov said: “This tense situation, when the US have already made their first move and raised the bets, calls for major efforts to prevent dangerous and criminal provocations. Chances are high that the excitement from seeing the power of this external force will force the radicals to inflame the situation further, which is just like pouring oil into the heat of conflict fanned by the winds of numerous vested instruments.”

While evidencing the importance of Rex Tillerson’s meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, M. Fradkov emphasized: “First and foremost, the USA must be as sensitive as never before to any adventurous attempts to provoke a global conflicts by making USA confront Russia. The relationships between these two countries determine a lot in today’s world. It is important to understand that response to such provocations in the form of objective international investigation will likely chill those who like to play with fire, for themselves and for the world”.

terrorism Syria