The acting US Defense Minister has already announced his plan in the worst-case scenario. The White House is going to send up to 120,000 US troops to Middle East. "But this military scenario is extremely undesirable for Trump. Participation in such a war with unpredictable consequences will prevent him from being re-elected for a second term," RISS expert underscored.
The analyst recalled that under George W. Bush, the United States formed the military coalitions very attentively and never started a war on its own. Now it is almost impossible to form such a coalition, because Europe intends to remain within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In addition, the world community is unlikely to recognize the legitimacy of such a military action.
RISS expert assumes that in the next few months Tehran will put pressure on the EU to implement a mechanism to bypass US sanctions. Brussels may take some steps forward, but they will be incomplete. Russia is extremely interested in Iran staying within the framework of the JCPOA, otherwise there will be a further escalation of tension. "There is a chance that Iran remain within the framework of the agreement, as Trump has already backed down. He didn't give any instructions to start preparations for a large-scale military operation. Although it is not clear whether Iran will agree to negotiate with the United States," the analyst pointed out.
He recalled that nearly 40% of the world's oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran blocks the Strait, world oil prices will collapse. At the same time, Tehran understands that in this case it will be in complete isolation. "Force demonstration by Iran and the USA will continue, but no one is going to undertake real military action. US is trying to hit Iran economically. But Iran is quite a stable state. It is unlikely that the US will achieve its goals in the near future," the analyst concluded.