“I think that the civil war would satisfy the US in less degree than a state coup organized by the Venezuelan military forces. The Americans are now working in all areas, including military, to remove the Venezuelan President with small losses,” – RISS expert I. Pshenichnikov said.
According to expert opinion, the new government that rejects political course of the followers of Hugo Chavez almost immediately would have received recognition from the United States “without any resolution from the Organization of American States (OAS).”
The probability of a military coup is related with the fact that the current government of Venezuela cannot fully rely on the security forces and the army.
In addition, as previously reported the head of the Center for Political Studies of the Institute for Latin American Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences Zbigniew Ivanovsky, we should consider the recent resignations of several senior military officials, among whom were even the commanders of the individual branches of the military.
“It is symptomatic and indicates that Maduro doesn’t trust them. It is possible that the Americans are working with the Venezuelan military forces, taking into account the corruption factor,” – RISS expert said.
Latin America specialist also suggested the risk of civil war.
“Likely, it will be either a military coup or a civil war. The country will reach a point when the problem will be submitted to the agenda of the UN or the OAS. Further, a resolution is adopted, for example, on the deployment of peacekeeping forces. And thus the reign of Maduro will end,” – I. Pshenicnnikov stated.
The expert believes it is possible that the USA will use a resource which is under control of Colombia's former President Alvaro Uribe, who brought together the formation of the “paramilitares” in Venezuela.
“At one time "Contras" also acted against Nicaragua. These formations were supplemented by Nicaraguan farmers through ideological indoctrination or intimidation. There were about 10 thousand people by the end of the civil war in neighboring Honduras. Now the same scheme is used against Venezuela,” said I. Pshenichnikov.