Turkish-Syrian war: is it possible?

The already volatile situation in the Syrian region of Idlib has significantly escalated. Terrorist groups attempted to break through Syrian army defensive positions. Syria retaliated against the advancing militants. RISS expert Vladimir Fitin drew attention to the fact that Turkish troops shelled by Syrian forces had been among terrorists. As a result, at least 30 Turkish soldiers were killed and armored personnel carriers were destroyed.

Turkish President Erdogan has urgently convened the National Security Council. The meeting lasted about 6 hours. "Tough resolutions were adopted. The Syrian army was declared an enemy and Ankara refused to take measures that prevent the flood of refugees to Europe," he said. According to various estimates, there are approximately between 3.5 and 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. Ankara promises Europe a new human wave of Idlib refugees of about a million people. Meanwhile, Fitin believes that these statements are not confirmed.

RISS expert recalled a similar situation in 2015, when a Russian plane had been shot down by Turkey. Ankara then also asked NATO for support, relying on Article 5 of NATO’s Collective Security Charter. But now we have a slightly different situation. After all, nobody attacked the Turkish armed forces on its territory.

"The situation is very problematic. The West will certainly declare its support for Ankara and that the "Assad's bloody regime" is responsible for this. But it is unlikely that the Western countries will undertake any serious measures. However, it is not in the Turkish interests as well to inflame the situation. There are numerous Russian-Turkish ties at the diplomatic and military levels. It is obvious that all possible measures will be undertaken to prevent the conflict from aggravating," Fitin concluded.

Turkey Syria