Bundestag Election: three possible scenarios

"Jamaica," "Grand Coalition" or new elections?

People were surprised by the results of the Bundestag elections. But at the same time they have met everyone’s expectations. Merkel's CDU/CSU won Bundestag Elections, SPD came second. Following the results, Merkel faces a task to form a coalition, which will be particularly challenging because of the right-wing AfD's surging into Bundestag.

The main surprise is the result of the leading parties — the CDU/CSU and the SPD. The party's rating had been falling for several weeks, and as a result, the CDU/CSU received only 32.9 %. The result of the SPD is the worst in post-war history — 20.5 %. So, Martin Schulz couldn’t justify everyone’s hopes and led the party to a new historical defeat. The informal winner is the "Alternative for Germany," which gained 12.6 %. Despite the fact that CSU always win all the single-member districts, it lost about 10 % of the votes compared to previous elections. This is gives food for leadership thought of the ruling party in Bavaria.

According to the results of the Bundestag elections, there are only two possible formats of the ruling coalition: the new "Grand coalition" (CDU/CSU and SPD), or the so-called "Jamaica" (CDU/CSU, FDP, and The Greens). Theoretically, of course, there are other options, but they are excluded because the Left party is absolutely unacceptable partner for the CDU/CSU and the FDP. However, there is a third scenario — a new election in case of the CDU/CSU will not be able to form the appropriate format of the coalition.

After the closing of polling stations SPD leadership, including Schultz, said that their party intended to go into opposition. Thus, the Social Democrats left Merkel with only one option - to form a coalition with the FDP and the Greens. Being in opposition, the Social Democrats will be able to renew the party and define its agenda. But at the same time, the SPD puts Merkel in a very difficult position and actually provokes a political crisis.

The positions of the CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens too much differ from each other on a number of key issues, ranging from tax and immigration policy to the defense budget and the problems of the Eurozone. Diametrically opposite approaches of the Greens and CSU to migration policy can play a key role. It is unclear how they will be able to negotiate with the CSU. In addition, such a coalition would be extremely unstable, and it will create serious problems for the CDU and Merkel personally, because instead of solving the real political problems, the government will busy with internal issues and attempts to formulate a unified position.

However, we must remember that all the countries in the EU are expecting when Berlin will form a new Cabinet and after that they can continue the process of EU reforming. For example, the French President a few weeks ago announced its plan to reform the Union, stating that he will announce it only after the German elections.

A number of experts are considering the possibility of re-election, if the negotiations between the parties will be deadlocked. There is no doubt that the negotiations will be difficult. However, the future status of the parties FDP and AfG is different. For example, the head of the FDP K.Lindner has all chances to become a figure of federal scale if he occupies the post of Foreign Minister. Representatives of the "Alternative" can be isolated, despite the fact that after the elections the party won the third place (and in the East of Germany – the second place).

German elections in 2017 have a different scenario than in France or the United States, there is no strong polarization in the society. Interparty cooperation and search of compromise are included in the political system.

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