Dynamics of Turkish politics today

RISS leading analyst Georgy Sosnov considers Turkey's current geostrategic stance. According to the expert, under Recep Tayyip Erdogan Ankara pursues a dynamic and ambitious foreign policy to become a key player in the region. Georgy Sosnov notes that the Turkish elite firmly defends its view of national interests in the international arena. Besides, the Turkish Armed Forces collectively rank as the second largest standing military force in NATO.

The analyst believes that despite the socio-economic challenges and the partial opposition of the Turkish society to the countries Islamization, President Erdogan is likely to win the next presidential race in 2023.

Summary:

  • Turkey's NATO approach neither pro nor anti-Russia not only stresses the independence of Turkish foreign policy, but also demonstrates Erdogan's ambitions to give more political weight to Turkey in NATO.

  • Erdogan acts pragmatically in both domestic and foreign policy fronts, while relying on the Turkish nationalism. He aspires to be honored as the founding father of the Republic of Turkey Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

  • Despite the Turkish economy being in rather dire straits, Erdogan is still in a good position for the 2023 presidential election. However, his ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), is unlikely to win the parliamentary election solely.
Recep Erdogan Turkey Georgy Sosnov